All good points, to be sure. Allow me to retort.
1. Mel is going to be too expensive. Maybe $20 million. That means you'd have to make the film for... $80 million. That's not a lot when you are trying to do something that is going to be competing against the $200+ million summer tentpole flicks from Michael Bay.
Assuming the budget is really $100 million, then it's being made with the same amount of money the 2003 version was budgeted at. Back then, Mel was being paid $25 million and, I believe, a percentage of the gross. If Miller and the studio thought he was important enough to the story to pay him that much 6 years ago, then they probably feel no different today. Check out the quote Miller made to Dark Horizon's back in 2002.
"Yes Mel's back on board (in response to his payment) He's worth every cent". -----George Miller
Add to that the Producer Offset that will pay Miller back Mel's salary times two! Back in 2003, Miller wasn't getting a penny in offsets or rebates.
2. Mel's not keen. He's gotta be physically fit be keen to put himself in harm's way wit the action at a remote Australian location for 30 weeks.
Why? Well he doesn't need the money. He doesn't need the acting gig. He's got a new relationship with new child. Why? I can't think of a single reason.
I can think of several reasons. Maybe he's intrigued with what Miller has in store for the character and wants to see it to some final resolution. Maybe he wants to close out his acting career with the character that started it so long ago. Maybe he wants to work with some old friends again (Miller, Semler, etc). Or maybe there is no tangible reason. Maybe he just
wants to do it.
As for time spent on location, if the rumor of the Max character having a smaller part in the movie is true, then Mel won't be spending much of those 30 weeks in Broken Hill.
3. WARNER will want sequels and will only sign off on a star that will sign onto sequels - and cheaply (think about The TWILIGHT deal).
The Hollywood model at the moment is more interested in lowering costs and creating new stars with franchise re-inventions and unknowns - think Daniel Craig / Christian Bale and the entire STAR TREK crew.
I agree. But I also think that 2003's Fury Road was going to be Mel's (as well as Max's) last appearance in the franchise. Ledger would've be the one to carry on with sequels, if any. The same could still hold true here, except this time it will be Hardy carrying on. Mel as Max would act as the key linking his past stories to the new character's future ones, allowing audiences to experience, in one movie, the best of both worlds. Sorta like "Star Trek: Generations" except much, much better.
It won't need Mel's star to make it live again.
Maybe. Maybe not. But if Max is an integral part of the movie, then......well......I'll defer to the rhetorical question Miller once asked of a reporter.
"Would you watch a Mad Max film without Mel?" ----George Miller